Loyola-Chicago has a 16% chance to reach the Final Four, per BPI.
At halftime, Kansas State has a 13% chance to reach the Final Four, per BPI. UMBC has a 0.2% shot.
After the Cincinnati loss and halfway though the first half against Kansas State, UMBC, a 16 seed is up to a 0.4% chance to reach the Final Four per BPI. Sounds impossible but the same team already overcame a 98.5% chance of losing its opening tournament game.
Kentucky is now the favorite to reach the Final Four out of the South Region, with a 51% shot, per BPI.
Michigan State has an 86% chance to win today, per BPI.
UMBC has the biggest tournament upset in BPI's history (back to 07-08), and the 3rd largest overall in a game with two Division I schools. The retrievers were only given 1.5% chance to knock off UVA. Today they have a 16% chance to beat Kansas State and a 1.3% chance to make the Elite 8.
The drama in the West Region over the past few hours, depicted in one plot:
By popular demand -- and the team's play last night -- UMBC has made it onto the South Region Final Four plot.
Kansas State entered the day with a 3% chance to reach the Sweet 16, per BPI. After it beat Creighton and UMBC beat Virginia, the Wildcats' Sweet 16 chances are up to 86%.
How the landscape of the South Region shifted over the last few hours:
Virginia's pre-game chance to win was 98.5%, per BPI.
How quickly Virginia's title hopes plummeted:
A lot of things to say after that Virginia stunner. After UMBC, Cincinnati should be the 2nd happiest team today. The Bearcats started the day as 5th most likely to win the National Championship and are now 2nd after Villanova per espn.com/bpi .
Best chance to win the South Region, per BPI: Cincinnati: 50% Tennessee: 19% Kentucky: 18% Kansas State: 6% Nevada: 3%
UMBC is up to 99.8% chance to win. Just like the Falcons in Super Bowl LI.
Cincinnati's live Final Four chances have skyrocketed to 48%. Virginia down to 5%.
Final Four chances in the South region have changed over the last few minutes...dramatically.
Though UMBC and Virginia are tied at halftime, the Cavaliers still have an 88% chance to win.
The winner of this game earns the right to likely face Virginia in the second round. BPI would give Kansas State and Creighton an 8% and 14% chance to beat the Cavaliers, respectively.
West Virginia is the main beneficiary of Wichita State's upset loss to Marshall. The Mountaineers' chances of reaching the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 increased from 43% and 11% this morning, respectively, to 75% and 19% now.
How Cincinnati's scare affected other teams' chances in the South region in the moment.
Wichita State was BPI's preseason favorite to win the national title, with an 11% shot. Fell short of expectations in the regular season and tournament.
For the first time this season, we have BPI predictions for the women's NCAA tournament. Notre Dame is the second-most likely team to win the national title behind UConn.
Texas A&M has a 63% chance to beat Providence today, per BPI.
How does Arizona's loss impact the South region? According to BPI, not much. Kentucky is up 78% to reach the Sweet 16 as a result but each of the top 3 seed's chances to reach the final four from the South barely moved as BPI sees a decent gap between UVA/Cincinnati and the rest.